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Grade-adjusted pace: reading trail running better

Why raw pace falls short in the mountains: how to read grade adjustment, elevation gain and the limits of the load model when coaching trail runners.

JPJuanPaCreator of TrainingForever·November 4, 2026

By JuanPa, creator of TrainingForever · Updated 4 November 2026

A kilometre at 7:00 on a climb can demand more than another at 5:00 on the flat. Reading both by the stopwatch alone can lead you to ask for more intensity precisely when the athlete is already working hard enough.

Grade adjustment gives back part of the context that raw pace loses. It does not turn a technical trail into a running track.

What it tries to represent

Flat-equivalent speed estimates what output would correspond to the cost of moving over a gradient. TrainingForever uses a gradient-based cost model when the necessary data series are available.

Curve of estimated relative cost against gradient, from 15% descents to 15% climbs.
Mathematical curve of relative cost, not recommended speeds. The descent section does not represent muscle impact or technical difficulty.

Case: it looks slow, but it isn't easy

Pablo is preparing a mountain race. On Tuesday he does an easy run on the flat and on Saturday he climbs along a fire road. His average pace on Saturday is much slower, even though his heart rate and perceived effort are higher.

Before concluding that he has lost fitness, separate gradient from surface. Equivalent speed can help interpret the metabolic component of that climb; raw pace on its own does not offer that comparison.

On a technical descent, the problem can be reversed: a relatively moderate metabolic cost coexists with muscle tension, braking and a lot of attention. A contained CT does not guarantee a session that is easy to recover from.

How to use it when reviewing a week

SituationUseful reading
Same route, similar conditionsMore interpretable comparison
One flat route and another with a lot of climbingAdd gradient and duration
Technical descents or unstable terrainAdd muscular and technical demand
GPS or altitude with jumpsCheck the data before adjusting

A change in the altitude file can produce a change in the metric. The coach needs to distinguish it from a change in the athlete.

Two calculation paths worth recognising

According to the product guide, if speed and gradient are available, intensity can be based on equivalent speed. If that data is missing, a simpler approximation is used and CT may incorporate an elevation gain term.

That term is not added again when the effect of gradient is already incorporated. Otherwise, part of the climb's demand would be counted twice.

The mathematical detail can wait until the end

The model transforms speed using the ratio between cost on a gradient and cost on the flat. The cost comes from a Minetti polynomial. You don't need to memorise it to make decisions: you do need to know what information it introduces and what demand it leaves out.

Don't use it to treat two routes with very different terrain as equivalent, kilometre by kilometre. Footwear, mud, turns and technical ability also change the experience.

One decision that does help

If a long run left more muscle fatigue than expected, review duration, descents and terrain before increasing the next one because CT "came out low". In trail running, what the route contains completes a large part of the reading.

What this explanation is based on

The references support concepts and limits. The numerical examples on this page are educational; they are not results from those studies.

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JP
Written by
JuanPa

Creator of TrainingForever.

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